Over the last year corporate America largely embraced social media (even if a lot of them haven’t quite yet figured out what it’s *good* for). On the other hand, eGov/Gov 2.0 (whichever you prefer) is still behind the curve in social networking. What adoption there is in this area seems to be mostly one way: Government to Constituent (the channel back up to government seems to be turned off at the moment). Since 2010 will be wrapping up in a few short weeks, I thought I would get a head start on all the other prognosticators out there and make a few predictions about what I think we’re likely to see in social media/social networking in the coming year.
The largest social network on the planet, Facebook, will continue to be the 800-pound gorilla in social networking next year. The biggest challenge they Face (sorry, couldn’t help myself) will be to not shoot themselves in the foot over privacy concerns. Trust is a big component in social networking (in real life as well as online), and Facebook is already on thin ice with many people over their ever-shifting privacy policies. If those concerns spread or become more profound (or perhaps worse, attract the attention of government privacy regulators) they risk losing growth momentum. Aside from potential privacy issues, Facebook is poised to kill location-based services like Foursquare and Gowalla. Facebook will take over as the 800-pound gorilla in the “check in for rewards” category of applications. Indeed, anyone with a business plan based around mobile devices and locations will have to be looking over their shoulder at Facebook.
The aspiring gorilla in social media—Google—will release Google Me sometime in the first half of 2011 to much fanfare and pundit praise. The public, however, will once again scratch their collective heads trying to figure out what it’s good for. Google will continue to snap up other companies in the coming year, perhaps even going after a social networking fish like Twitter.
Twitter, left to its own devices, will continue to be a rising star in 2011 as more and more people figure out what it’s good for: news and entertainment. Twitter will be the “go to” site whenever there is breaking news anywhere on the planet or whenever they are in the need for a bit of quick humor. At some point in the coming year, the folks at Twitter might even figure out how to successfully monetize the site.
Like Google Wave before it, Apple’s musical entry into social networking—Ping—will languish in obscurity until Apple finally gives up on it late next year (seriously, does anyone really care what music Steve likes to listen to?). The biggest social change (but not really in the area of social networking) will come in June when Apple releases the iPhone 5 with NFC (Near-Field Communication) capabilities. NFC will let people program their phones to behave as wireless credit cards, enabling people to leave their wallets at home. Other phone manufactures will follow with similar functions some months later.
The biggest change in social networking in 2011 will be the emergence of social commerce as an engine of growth. Facing stagnant economies and low growth rates, more and more businesses (and maybe even governments) will recognize that the wisdom of the crowds is a great way to drive growth and revenue.
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