Last December I made some predictions about what was likely to happen in the social networking scene this year. There were a few hits and a few misses. This week, I’ll review what I got (sort of) right and what I got (really, really) wrong.
First the hits and missed from last year:
Hit: I wrote “The largest social network on the planet, Facebook, will continue to be the 800-pound gorilla in social networking next year. The biggest challenge they Face (sorry, couldn’t help myself) will be to not shoot themselves in the foot over privacy concerns.” And lthough there were a few minor kerfuffles with Facebook privacy in 2011, they certainly didn’t make any fatal mistakes.
Miss: I wrote “Facebook is poised to kill location-based services like Foursquare and Gowalla. Facebook will take over as the 800-pound gorilla in the “check in for rewards” category of applications.” Hmm, not so much. Facebook places didn’t overtake Foursquare; in fact Foursquare integrated their check-ins with Facebook. Gowalla was actually acquired by Facebook late in the year, apparently for the people working on it and not the application: Facebook promptly killed it.
Hit (Kind of): I wrote “The aspiring gorilla in social media—Google—will release Google Me sometime in the first half of 2011 to much fanfare and pundit praise. The public, however, will once again scratch their collective heads trying to figure out what it’s good for.” Google did indeed release a social networking platform in 2011: Google+. It shot out of the gate with millions of people jumping on board in the first few weeks, making it the fastest growing social network on record. The jury is still out on whether or not it will ever threaten Facebook for dominance in the space.
Hit: I wrote: “Twitter, left to its own devices, will continue to be a rising star in 2011 as more and more people figure out what it’s good for: news and entertainment. Twitter will be the “go to” site whenever there is breaking news anywhere on the planet or whenever they are in the need for a bit of quick humor.” Twitter obviously continues to thrive, even releasing a new interface late in the year. Unlike other revamps, the New Twitter doesn’t seem to have offended users in droves.
Hit: I wrote: “Like Google Wave before it, Apple’s musical entry into social networking—Ping—will languish in obscurity until Apple finally gives up on it late next year (seriously, does anyone really care what music Steve likes to listen to?).” I don’t think Ping is in any danger of becoming massively popular anytime soon (and RIP, Steve Jobs).
Swing and a complete miss: I wrote: “The biggest social change (but not really in the area of social networking) will come in June when Apple releases the iPhone 5 with NFC (Near-Field Communication) capabilities. NFC will let people program their phones to behave as wireless credit cards, enabling people to leave their wallets at home. Other phone manufactures will follow with similar functions some months later.” Turns out Apple will be late to the game with NFC, as it did not appear in the iPhone 4S released this year. My suspicion is that although the technology appears to be ready for prime time, Apple won’t jump in with NFC until it has an entire payment ecosystem (that they control) in place.
Next week: My predictions for 2012.
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