2011 Predictions -- Hits and Misses

Originally published 12/12/2011

Last December I made some predictions about what was likely to happen in the social networking scene this year.  There were a few hits and a few misses. This week, I’ll review what I got (sort of) right and what I got (really, really) wrong.

First the hits and missed from last year:

Hit: I wrote “The largest social network on the planet, Facebook, will continue to be the 800-pound gorilla in social networking next year. The biggest challenge they Face (sorry, couldn’t help myself) will be to not shoot themselves in the foot over privacy concerns.”  And lthough there were a few minor kerfuffles with Facebook privacy in 2011, they certainly didn’t make any fatal mistakes.

Miss: I wrote “Facebook is poised to kill location-based services like Foursquare and Gowalla. Facebook will take over as the 800-pound gorilla in the “check in for rewards” category of applications.”  Hmm, not so much.  Facebook places didn’t overtake Foursquare; in fact Foursquare integrated their check-ins with Facebook.  Gowalla was actually acquired by Facebook late in the year, apparently for the people working on it and not the application: Facebook promptly killed it.

Hit (Kind of): I wrote “The aspiring gorilla in social media—Google—will release Google Me sometime in the first half of 2011 to much fanfare and pundit praise.  The public, however, will once again scratch their collective heads trying to figure out what it’s good for.” Google did indeed release a social networking platform in 2011: Google+.  It shot out of the gate with millions of people jumping on board in the first few weeks, making it the fastest growing social network on record.  The jury is still out on whether or not it will ever threaten Facebook for dominance in the space.

Hit: I wrote: “Twitter, left to its own devices, will continue to be a rising star in 2011 as more and more people figure out what it’s good for: news and entertainment. Twitter will be the “go to” site whenever there is breaking news anywhere on the planet or whenever they are in the need for a bit of quick humor.”  Twitter obviously continues to thrive, even releasing a new interface late in the year.  Unlike other revamps, the New Twitter doesn’t seem to have offended users in droves.

Hit: I wrote: “Like Google Wave before it, Apple’s musical entry into social networking—Ping—will languish in obscurity until Apple finally gives up on it late next year (seriously, does anyone really care what music Steve likes to listen to?).” I don’t think Ping is in any danger of becoming massively popular anytime soon (and RIP, Steve Jobs).

Swing and a complete miss: I wrote: “The biggest social change (but not really in the area of social networking) will come in June when Apple releases the iPhone 5 with NFC (Near-Field Communication) capabilities.  NFC will let people program their phones to behave as wireless credit cards, enabling people to leave their wallets at home.  Other phone manufactures will follow with similar functions some months later.”  Turns out Apple will be late to the game with NFC, as it did not appear in the iPhone 4S released this year.  My suspicion is that although the technology appears to be ready for prime time, Apple won’t jump in with NFC until it has an entire payment ecosystem (that they control) in place.

Next week: My predictions for 2012.

Social Media in 2011

Originally posted 12/2/2010

Over the last year corporate America largely embraced social media (even if a lot of them haven’t quite yet figured out what it’s *good* for). On the other hand, eGov/Gov 2.0 (whichever you prefer) is still behind the curve in social networking. What adoption there is in this area seems to be mostly one way: Government to Constituent (the channel back up to government seems to be turned off at the moment). Since 2010 will be wrapping up in a few short weeks, I thought I would get a head start on all the other prognosticators out there and make a few predictions about what I think we’re likely to see in social media/social networking in the coming year.

The largest social network on the planet, Facebook, will continue to be the 800-pound gorilla in social networking next year. The biggest challenge they Face (sorry, couldn’t help myself) will be to not shoot themselves in the foot over privacy concerns.  Trust is a big component in social networking (in real life as well as online), and Facebook is already on thin ice with many people over their ever-shifting privacy policies.  If those concerns spread or become more profound (or perhaps worse, attract the attention of government privacy regulators) they risk losing growth momentum. Aside from potential privacy issues, Facebook is poised to kill location-based services like Foursquare and Gowalla. Facebook will take over as the 800-pound gorilla in the “check in for rewards” category of applications.  Indeed, anyone with a business plan based around mobile devices and locations will have to be looking over their shoulder at Facebook.

The aspiring gorilla in social media—Google—will release Google Me sometime in the first half of 2011 to much fanfare and pundit praise.  The public, however, will once again scratch their collective heads trying to figure out what it’s good for. Google will continue to snap up other companies in the coming year, perhaps even going after a social networking fish like Twitter. 

Twitter, left to its own devices, will continue to be a rising star in 2011 as more and more people figure out what it’s good for: news and entertainment. Twitter will be the “go to” site whenever there is breaking news anywhere on the planet or whenever they are in the need for a bit of quick humor. At some point in the coming year, the folks at Twitter might even figure out how to successfully monetize the site.

Like Google Wave before it, Apple’s musical entry into social networking—Ping—will languish in obscurity until Apple finally gives up on it late next year (seriously, does anyone really care what music Steve likes to listen to?). The biggest social change (but not really in the area of social networking) will come in June when Apple releases the iPhone 5 with NFC (Near-Field Communication) capabilities.  NFC will let people program their phones to behave as wireless credit cards, enabling people to leave their wallets at home.  Other phone manufactures will follow with similar functions some months later.

The biggest change in social networking in 2011 will be the emergence of social commerce as an engine of growth. Facing stagnant economies and low growth rates, more and more businesses (and maybe even governments) will recognize that the wisdom of the crowds is a great way to drive growth and revenue.

Resolutions for 2011

Here it is almost two weeks deep into the new year and I haven’t blogged about my 2011 resolutions. After careful consideration, I’ve resolved the following for the coming year.

• Never call out a number of ways to do something in my blog title, such as “7 Ways to do X in Social Media.”  It’s an annoying trend I noticed last year, especially in social media blogs.  Why 7? Does the author perhaps think I’ll be less interested in the subject if they only write about 6 ways to do “x”? Or maybe the author thinks that if I see that there are only 7 ways to do “x” that I’ll look at my watch and say to myself “Ok, I have time to read this.”  In either case, the title would be far better without the number.
• Write more about the architecture of successful social networking solutions. As my background is in software development methodologies, it should come as no surprise that I’m interested in methods for ‘engineering’ successful online communities.  At their heart, social networks are leveraging technology to facilitate the communication between members of a community that have always taken place. They have the capacity to bring together geographically dispersed members in ways that could never be done without technology: interested in collecting green ceramic soap dispensers but don’t know of any other people that share your passion? No problem: create an online community to trade them. There is real science behind successful social networks, and I’ll be writing more about it this year.
• Use fewer parenthetical comments in my blogs. (A nice resolution, but ‘fewer’ is a relative term.) The habit is probably a vestige from writing paper books and articles where I would use a footnote to offer a more in-depth explanation than seemed warranted in the paragraph, but footnotes in a blog seem…anachronistic.
• Track my predictions for 2011. Unlike some authors who throw out predictions and then hope you don’t remember them, I’m planning on tracking the predictions I made a few weeks ago and following up on them periodically.  They all relate to initiatives I find interesting (well, the serious ones anyway (darn, and not one paragraph ago I resolved to do fewer of these)) so I’ll update my predictions as major events unfold.
• Tweet more often. I find compressing a compelling thought down to 140 characters a frustrating experience.  If you want me to kick out 500 words on a subject, I can sit down and do that in a heartbeat: If you want me to condense the concept down to a dozen or so words, I have to think about it for a while.  And often fail to find the right dozen or so words (I suppose I could just do multiple connected tweets, but that seems like cheating (and so much for that previous resolution)).

By the way if you want to follow me on Twitter, it’s @davehiggins1—but then most of you already knew that, since the only reason you are here reading this blog is that I posted a link to it on Twitter.